While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. Thank you for registering with FastExpert. All Rights Reserved, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. One of the many reasons, and perhaps one of the most important reasons folks are moving to Utah, is because this great state boasts one of the strongest economies and job markets in the Nation. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. They didnt go down.. In January 2023, there were 8,551 homes for sale in Utah, up 81.9% year over year.The number of newly listed homes was 1,954 and up 1.4% year over year. Some, however, say the market needs this correction to reach a more healthy equilibrium between sellers and buyers as well as healthier affordability. The states unemployment rate in November was 2.2%. This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. Login. Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. With uncertainty in the economy, predictions for Utahs housing market vary greatly. We went through a real roller coaster ride the past couple of years mainly because of the pandemic. When he thinks about what his parents life was like in the same window of time in their lives, he said it blows his mind. The home was 2,500 square feet, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, sat on a quarter acre lot, and they lived well within their means on a $1,000 a month mortgage payment. About Us Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. I dont think were going to get a recession now, in Utah., Eskic, smiling, said he and Wood should make a bet on stage. At the very least, folks can expect some sort of moderation over the next few years but not a decline. Privacy . Median listing prices were 3.6% lower than in the third quarter, suggesting that higher financing costs may have created a price ceiling. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca pose for a photo in their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. The housing market in West Jordan is competitive, with the average listed property receiving five offers and selling within 27 days on the market. Utahs housing market is starting to feel the rising interest rates, resulting in plateaued price growth. Homes on the market: 11,172. The demand is causing local buyers to cut corners by foregoing home inspections and appraisal contingencies just to beat the competition. While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. Therefore, the impact of increasing interest rates has been felt more in the state than in other parts of the country. Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. Therefore, the Utah housing market is to be expected to slow down. Below is the latest Utah housing market trends analysis. Three of the top ten most overvalued US housing markets are in Utah. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. Where do we go from here? Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Utahs economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Strong job growth cities like Boise and Salt Lake City are harder to forecast, he said, as affordability issues keep first-time buyers from getting into the market. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. While they both agree the market is in the midst of a price correction after two years of runaway demand amid the pandemic housing frenzy, they have differing outlooks for just how deep that price correction will run next year. For further information about the housing market in your area, please dont hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent. While neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash, they do expect 2023 to be a challenging year, especially for homebuilders that leaned hard into speculative building in 2021. Since the pandemic began, housing prices in the Beehive State have skyrocketed to the point that more than 50% of households can no longer afford to buy median-priced properties in the state. The ones who are truly making money in real estate in Utah are the investors. 2.1 months of housing inventory. He has a background in sales and marketing and construction as a Project Superintendent. Average home value: $562,693. However, because of the growing number of migrants in the state, Utah is now faced with what experts say is a severe imbalance in its housing market. Despite the wild 2021 ride we all took inflation, a spike in gas prices, and a persistent global health crisis 2022 is looking to be another unique year for the Utah real estate market. So many factors come into play. By April, mortgage rates had begun shooting up. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. That was also a time when the national economy and Utah faced a struggling job market, Wood noted. To ensure a good return on investment, we encourage real estate investors to perform their due diligence and seek out the help of local Utah real estate professionals. The median sale price for a house in Salt Lake City has reached $550,000, increasing by 6.3% compared to the previous year, and the median number of days on the market was 32, compared to 17 in September 2021. In addition, the number of homes has increased along with significant population growth. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. Next came Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa. A realty sign at a property in the Salt Lake City on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023. 2024 will be better, Jim Wood, one of Utahs leading housing experts, told the crowd gathered at the Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City for the Salt Lake Board of Realtors 2023 housing forecast Friday. Median List Price By Bedroom Count Median List Price Compared To Nearby Cities The rising inventory, coupled with listing price growth dropping below 10% for the first time in a year, offers some positives for homebuyers, Realtor.com stated in its report, as they may have more options and more time to make a decision on a home purchase.. An increasing population and a shortage of homes have increased house prices in Utah. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs. But what about the increase in interest rates? Its important to keep a tab on the housing market and current trends. However, this increase in inventory is not due to newly listed homes but properties staying on the market longer, as only 3,764 homes were listed in September 2022, 20% less than the year before. The Utah housing market benefits from the states attractivity, which features a strong economy and job market. How much do homes in Saint George, UT cost? Areas of Utah State are also referred to as Northern Utah, SLC, Wasatch Range, and Park City. In 2022, Redfin itself went through two rounds of layoffs. We go back to the 70s, for example, Eskic said. Updated January 2023: By searching, you agree to the Terms of Use, andPrivacy Policy. Utah house prices are significantly higher than the national average, and local salaries are not keeping up with the price growth and inflation. Price growth rates, especially in 2021, were nothing short of astounding. Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. A good indication of the markets strength and inventory is the average number of days properties stay listed. If the agent you hired through FastExpert does not perform up to your expectations, we will help resolve the problem. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. Our Utah real estate market data is updated quarterly to aid in your real estate forecasts. After a long, over two-year frenzy, Perry said buyers had more breathing room to negotiate prices and complete their due diligence. Nationwide, housing pandemic hot spots in the West have been among the first to see sale prices slashed. Please check your email to verify your account. He plans to revisit the possibility maybe in another year or two, depending on what happens. Utah will see minor year-over-year price declines in the first and second quarter of 2023, but prices will begin to stabilize by the third and fourth quarter, he said. I call it the great debate, Ivory said. Real estate investors number by the thousands in the US. It has been one of if not the most competitive markets in the US in 2021. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop. of $518,200. To Eskic, 2022 was the year of the Fed. In his mind, it was a federal miscalculation to raise borrowing rates so high and so fast after two runaway years. Yes! Moodys Analytics expects a peak-to-trough U.S. home price decline of 10% or a 15% to 20% decline if a recession hits. If they hadnt been so aggressive in 2020 and 2021, wed be talking about unemployment now rather than inflation. He also noted it was really Congress that juiced the economy with so much one-time stimulus money, not the Fed. The question is, how far will that correction run and what will it mean for home prices in 2023? Along with his love of family, he has a very strong competitive spirit, is passionate about personal development, and truly cares for others. Shouldnt I wait for mortgage rates to decrease before I buy? Colorado Data Utah has seen a significant increase in population over the past decade, which will likely help with the influx of home listings once everyone gets used to the new lending rates. Or if its little more meaningful declines, a 10% decline, take advantage of those because 10 years from now youll see much better conditions.. The best way to describe it, he said, is an abrupt contraction thats had a dramatic effect on all aspects of the market, but especially on homebuilding, which he and Eskic worry will exacerbate Utahs housing shortage long term. million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across more than 100 metro areas. You can find some of the most distinguished and reputable real estate agents using Mashvisors real estate agent directory. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. We also observe a lengthening of the time spent on the market and a decrease in both new listings and sales, which points towards a general slowing down of the Utah housing market. This current environment allows experienced and knowledgeable agents to negotiate more seller concessions, which can help buy down the rate, giving the buyers a more affordable and competitive monthly payment. They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. By Sarah Burns of The Salt Lake Local Real Estate Group, October 21, 2021 Utah State #2 in Housing Price Increases Utah's equity gains sat at 28.3% between 2020 and 2021, making Utah #2 in housing . This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. If one were to understand what the Utah housing market forecast 2022 is implying here is that renters are facing bigger challenges of acquiring their own properties. Considering how crazy the market was in 2020 and 2021, here is the Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until "finally turning negative 2.1% in December," Wood wrote in his report. must have viewed at least 10 homes in a three month period. So I hope the industry is close to right-sized and things can get better from here, Kelman said. Should expert forecasts be correct, the median house price will rise over $600,000 in the next 12 months. Now, we still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said. When you look around at those who are not in as comfortable of a position, well, what options do they have at all?. Here are their year-over-year predictions for the Salt Lake City housing market in 2022: Forecasted home sales change: +15.2%. Over the next 12 to 18 months, Eskic said he expects homebuilders to offer big discounts. Not necessarily dramatic price drops, but more buyer incentives and rate buydowns, perhaps offers to finish basements. Roughly two-thirds of the population live in the Wasatch Front in the north-central part of the state, which includes the capital city, Salt Lake City. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. All Rights Reserved. I like the word contraction better than collapse, said Jim Wood, director of research and science and the Ivory-Boyer senior fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Institute. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about two The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. The Utah housing markets that are most overvalued are Ogden, Provo, and Salt Lake City. Over the past 12 months, the state added 43,300 jobs. Check! Thats the story of 2022. He is married with 7 children. The Utah housing market became one of the most competitive in the country, especially in areas like Salt Lake City and St. George. When is the best time to buy a house in Utah? Utahs housing market has a tight supply, and while we may see prices decrease somewhat, its not likely to experience a significant decline in housing values. Its going to be tough for home builders, Wood said. Affirming this projection, Wood asserts . Utahs housing experts continue to shy away from the word crash, since what happened in 2022 is still nothing like what happened after the 2006 housing bubble popped. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? Here's your Official 2022 Utah housing Market Forecast in Salt Lake City. Love hiking, biking, or camping? The slate of speakers all sought to help bring clarity to a market that they said has largely been fraught with volatility and uncertainty as mortgage rates, some days hovering around 7%, have squeezed buyers and have brought a rapid end to what had been over two years of a blazing hot market. If rates had risen to around 4.5%, the train would still go. Joseph Branca, left, makes a drink while his partner Scotty Fletcher makes dinner at their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. The music stopped. This dataset excludes all rentals data. Median sale price: $611,600. Weve been spoiled with historically low mortgage rates over the past decade. The 2021 Utah housing market will be long remembered for its record-breaking price increases. Property values will likely decline over the next 6 to 12 months and then flatten in the Utah housing market. In the beginning, Branca said his home hunt was exciting, kind of frenzied, certainly, but still manageable. How can I get a free valuation of a home in Utah? Connect with an Agent Hes predicting Utahs home prices will only experience minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. The Utah housing market has experienced consistent growth in real estate throughout the past five years, but it started to take off in mid-2020. Utah may be the 13th-largest state in the country by area, but it is also the 11th-least densely populated. Once the Fed slows inflation by continued interest rate hikes, they will have to ease the tightening by making money more affordable and accessible. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. Keep in mind, however, that during the pandemic housing frenzy from early 2020 to late 2022, the nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, so even if the most pessimistic predictions pan out, they arent slated to erase the historic price gains seen over the last two years. The Ha read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! On average, homes in Cache County sell after 57 days on the market compared to 12 days last year. Months supply of inventory: 3 up from 1 in September 2021. Dont focus on the loss you may believe you are experiencing if you sell today. So from that affordability perspective, I think its going to keep the market from accelerating back to have a more positive price appreciation., Wood said thats a good point, but added the 70s and early 80s saw interest rates that hit as high as 18%. How far will they fall? Eskic said it all comes down to affordability. We break down our data by county, but we cover major cities in this region including Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, and West Jordan. Historically, even if the nation experiences economic troubles, Wood said Utahs strong employment economy typically makes the state resilient. In December 2022, Cache County home prices were up 2.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $444K. In 2021, buyers were getting raked over the coals, having to give a years supply of pizza with their offer. Thats not hyperbole, he said. This speedometer reflects the state of the regions real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. Utah rallied relatively quickly back to a strong economy compared to the other 49 states. While 2021 was the year of the shocking home price, 2022 was the year of the reset, said Steve Perry, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. The mortgage rates will likely continue to rise compared to what they are today. Housing prices have skyrocketed so much, now more than half of Utah's households are unable to afford the state's median priced home, which for single-family homes was $460,000 in 2021. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. No, you shouldnt wait to buy a home. Utah continues to be a light upon a hill to others throughout the States and even worldwide. Sign In. Wood and Eskic expect a staggering 40% to 50% drop in the number of new homes produced in Utah over the next two years. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. This, combined with higher mortgage rates, likely impacted sales in the fourth quarter. Price forecasts for this year (are) somewhat uncertain, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told the Salt Lake Board of Realtors crowd on Friday. The client gave a slightly crooked smile to suggest that I am not only biased but also a Realtor who makes a living by selling properties in Utah. Sellers could no longer do whatever they wanted, Perry said, and suddenly buyers had more options at least those who could still afford to buy. Comparatively speaking, I make more money than my parents combined income at my age and still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality than what they were able to purchase at that same age, Branca said. Both bearded men chuckled, along with laughs and applause from the audience. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. However, Nelson-Ogilvy sees housing prices cooling off a . Heres why, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Home sales are crashing down to reality in the West, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. Instead, he was actually looking at a mortgage payment of up to $4,200 a month, depending on the days rate. Each year, the Sal. 1 housing market in the nation for 2022. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Utah Home Sales In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. How the pandemic housing frenzy which drove housing prices up to unimaginable levels in 2021 and into early 2022, especially in Western states like Idaho and Utah came to a grinding halt mid year, and the market crashed down to reality. 2022 housing market forecast Why is it taking two weeks, a month, six weeks?. Find an experienced, trusted local real estate agent with FastExpert. And it looks like that trend is not going to end any time soon. But high mortgage rates, some weeks hovering over 7%, did trigger a type of collapse in demand and sales. 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