The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? Whoops that cant be right. Sydney: Murdoch Press. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. *chuckle*. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. Their own currencies gain prestige, giving their governments more political and military muscle. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. At any rate Australia is in trouble. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! God help our descendents. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. This is the real war. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. A war . Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? [2] Hugh White. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. Your email address will not be published. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. What the hell have we done? "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. http://www.alternet.org/world/chomsky-americas-obsession-destroys-earths-climate. But the nation is not in a good place. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' And correspondingly, where to place the US? Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. Just $5 a month. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. Agree with all comments . That sounds frightening!!! Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. The World Economy. Now, try to find out where all our Gold and other more precious commodities have been going and then why our Conservative US backed Governments have sold out our Reserves? What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. Everyone is doing it hard at present. And we are afraid of China? Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. [6] Paul Monk. Something went wrong, please try again later. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. Try again. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. great commentary, thankyou for your input one and all. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. Don't miss a thing! Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. War is inevitable. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. Read more. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. China has over 1 Billion people !!! It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. To China ( providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway.! Has deposed compared to China and it would not take much to regain their respect and. 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